CHARLOTTE - More than half of the land now unprotected and undeveloped in Cabarrus County will be developed by 2020, according to a new study conducted by researchers at UNC Charlotte.

In 1976, only 2 percent of such land in the county was developed - or made up of impervious surfaces, such as buildings and roads. By 2030, the research indicates, that figure will jump to 68 percent.

Many residents have already sensed the pace of development accelerating, said Dave Cable, the leader of the Open Space Protection Collaborative, a group that commissioned the research and consists of six regional land-preservation groups spanning 24 counties.

This study, Cable said, is the first to so clearly show how fast the region is consuming land.

“We’re kind of like a frog in a pot that’s heating up,” said Cable, who is also the executive director of the Catawba Lands Conservancy.

Previous studies have analyzed census tracts, which researchers said are too big to accurately reflect the ratio of developed to undeveloped land.

This study, released early last week by the Renaissance Computer Institute at UNC Charlotte, produced maps from historical satellite imagery to track patterns over a 30-year period in parcels of less than a quarter of an acre.

Researchers then analyzed several variables to gauge development trends of both the past and future. Findings included:

□ Development in the greater Charlotte region has increased more than 850 percent between 1976 and 2006.

□ During that time, 105 acres of natural and rural land was converted to development per day.

In Cabarrus, the 1976 map shows little more than a smattering of development roughly paralleling the U.S. 29 corridor.

By 2006, development had begun to expand into much of the northern and western sections of the county. By 2030, projections indicate, only splotches of undeveloped land will remain in the north and west, and development will have begun to expand to the south and east, which are currently relatively untouched.

Although humans have inhabited the region for about 15,000 years, residents haven’t dramatically altered the landscape until recent decades, said Jason Walser, the executive director of the Land Trust for Central North Carolina.

Walser said he wasn’t against development but does want to encourage careful planning to avoid problems with air and water quality, noise, access to open space, flood protection and water supplies.

"We’ve got our work cut out for us," Walser said.

■ Josh McCann is a reporter with the Independent Tribune of Concord and Kannapolis.