Sudden Oak Death Research Project:
Predicting the establishment and spread of
Phytophthora ramorum
 Spatial
pattern is a fundamental property of disease dynamics
because it reflects the environmental and genetic forces acting
on pathogen dispersal and establishment processes. For this
reason, research in plant disease epidemics is beginning to
focus on spatially explicit approaches to model landscape
patterns of disease spread. Despite the benefits, relatively few
studies have developed spatially explicit models to predict
plant disease spread in natural systems. This is largely because
a multidisciplinary framework is needed to 1) incorporate
fine-scale processes of pathogen dispersal and survival into
landscape-level models and 2) integrate disease occurrence with
spatial variation in environmental factors and host population
genetics.
 To
develop a predictive understanding of factors that influence the
establishment and spread of Phytophthora ramorum, Ross
Meentemeyer, Hall Cushman, Nathan Rank, Richard Whitkus, and
Dave Rizzo (UC Davis) — along with research technicians Deanne
DiPietro and Djibo Zanzot — are conducting a collaborative
research project designed to analyze and model spatial and
temporal dynamics of P. ramorum. We are actively
collecting and analyzing data on P. ramorum infection
level, microclimate, host genetics, plant community structure,
land-use history, and vertebrate activity from over 200
long-term plots
located on both public and private land in Sonoma County. We are
also collaboratively working toward integrating these data with
fine-scale processes of P. ramorum dispersal and survival
(investigated by the Rizzo lab) to model spatial and temporal
patterns of pathogen activity across the landscape.
Model predictions will identify critical factors that
influence the establishment and spread of P. ramorum and
provide forecasts of habitat changes in oak woodlands as a
consequence of the
 disease.
We also hope to use our results to recommend management
strategies and test effectiveness of regulations designed to
prevent inadvertent spread of the pathogen. Few if any empirical
plant disease studies have incorporated fine-scale mechanisms
with population genetics, environmental variability, community
structure, and biotic dispersal agents to understand the spread
of a plant disease across a natural landscape. Our results will
provide important insights into factors underlying disease
spread as well as contribute to our knowledge about this
disease, which may drastically alter oak woodlands in California
and elsewhere in the USA.
Other Sudden Oak Death Research Projects:
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